In the latest instalment of our global trends to 2035 series, we forecast the threat to oil demand from electric vehicles
Transport is set to continue as a key driver of energy demand. The growing markets of China, India and the Middle East will put so many new cars on the road that oil use for transport fuel will keep growing, requiring 12% more barrels in 2035 than in 2016.
Yet the threat from electric vehicles (EVs) beyond 2025 is material. Sales are growing exponentially and have outpaced expectations, boosted by faster than anticipated battery improvements.
So, to just what extent will oil be threatened by advancements in EVs?
In our current base case, we see the accumulative number of EVs reaching almost 100 million by 2035, taking around one to two million barrels per day of oil demand.
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